Since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, the Biden administration has worked tirelessly to rally the Global South to isolate Moscow and to condemn this act of aggression. This was always going to be a hard sell. Leaders from India to South Africa prioritise trade relations with Russia and China and deplore the hypocrisy in the US narrative. Whilst many oppose the violation of state sovereignty and agree, privately at least, that a world order based on international law is preferable to one based on ‘might is right’, the US, in promoting this view, is tainted by the legacy of its invasion of Iraq.
Those leaders who were sceptical that the US was committing itself to a ‘rules-based order’ were vindicated on 18 October, when Biden bear hugged Benajmin Netanyahu, in the wake of the Hamas attack. This action gave the discredited Israeli Prime Minister carte blanch to retaliate against Gaza and relaunched the discredited US strategy of attacking a country or a people in response to the actions of a terrorist group.
Israel, like any state, has the right to defend itself, but self-defence is not the same as acting in a way that has enabled UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres to describe its actions as the ‘collective punishment” of the Palestinian people. The Israel bombardment of Gaza is not a war; only one of the parties is a nation state with an army and in refusing to call for a ceasefire, the Biden administration is seen by many as endorsing ‘might over right’.
This situation is challenging to defend in the Global South and increasingly in Western countries. Washington cannot credibly claim that Russia has violated international law in Ukraine whilst providing cover for Israel to commit what some UN officials and Heads of State describe as ‘genocide’ against the Palestinians. In the US, the Democratic coalition that brought Biden to office in 2020, is beginning to fray in opposition to his unswerving support for Netanyahu.
As a geopolitical risk management strategy, US policy is an abject failure. It does not control the end game in Gaza. No constraints have been placed on Netanyahu’s actions and the territory could be left as a pile of rubble with 2.3 million refuges. Biden has reiterated US support for a two-state solution but has tied himself to a man who has spent his political life creating a reality that would prevent this. That Anthony Blinken is courting the discredited and disliked Mahmoud Abbas, President of the Palestinian Authority, smacks of desperation.
China and Russia will seize the opportunity the US has created to deepen ties with the governments courted by the West. Expect it to be even more difficult for the US to garner support for upholding international law and support for Ukraine in the UN. And if China is considering an invasion of Taiwan, will it conclude the US will be reluctant to deploy troops, having made it clear they will not commit troops to the Middle East. Either way, expect the Global South to tell the Americans that they will sit this one out.
As one G7 diplomat told the FT: “We have definitely lost the battle in the Global South… Forget about rules, forget about world order. They won’t ever listen to us again.”
When companies adopt contradictory business strategies they fail. The same is true of governments, aging superpowers, included.
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